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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 59

Cleveland Browns 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(13:06) 4-B.Colquitt punts 29 yards to NO 30, Center-47-C.Hughlett, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.96 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 59, worth -3.55 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 18, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.43 EP