Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 15 at the 70

New Orleans Saints 10 – Cleveland Browns 12

(6:00) 6-T.Morstead punts 46 yards to CLE 24, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.93 EP
70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model