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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Cleveland Browns
4th & 1 at the 37
Cleveland Browns 3 – New Orleans Saints 3
What Actually Happened
(9:17) 29-D.Johnson right guard to NO 38 for -1 yards (20-K.Crawley).
The Three Options
GO
+1.64 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.54 EP
- 34% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 37, worth -2.08 EP
KICK
+0.00 EP
- 64% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
- 36% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 46, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT
-0.46 EP
- New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
