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Arizona Cardinals

HC Steve Wilks
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Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2018-09-16 · 16:05 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ARI
28.7%
LA
71.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ARI offense: -0.170 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • ARI defense: -0.162 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • Jared Goff (LA): +0.162 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LA defense: -0.072 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.026 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19
–
LA 26
Projected margin: LA by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ARI

Olsen Pierre DT Out Toe
Andre Smith T Out Elbow
Markus Golden DE Questionable Knee
Jermaine Gresham TE Questionable Achilles
Haason Reddick LB Questionable Ankle

LA

Mike Thomas WR Out Hip
Mark Barron LB Doubtful Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 0
–
LA 34

Prediction missed by 27 pts on margin, 11 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 14:37 TD LA (14:37) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 6
  • Q2 08:11 FG LA (8:11) 6-J.Hekker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-18-C.Kupp. ARI 0 – LA 11
  • Q2 00:03 TD LA (:03) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 17
  • Q3 03:44 TD LA (3:44) (No Huddle) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 25
  • Q4 03:21 TD LA (3:21) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 89-T.Higbee for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – LA 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LA 4th & 10 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (11:33) 6-J.Hekker punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Touchback.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 3 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (7:26) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to LA 12, Center-46-A.Brewer, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 32%

    (2:41) 6-J.Hekker punts 42 yards to ARI 7, Center-44-J.McQuaide, downed by LA-83-J.Reynolds.

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (1:01) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LA 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson ran ob at ARI 43 for 19 yards (92-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on LA-83-J.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 49.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:05) 2-A.Lee punts 49 yards to LA 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 46 for 17 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 98%

    (8:11) 6-J.Hekker 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-18-C.Kupp.

  • Q2 ARI 4th & 15 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (4:33) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to ARI 32 for 60 yards (2-A.Lee).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 99%

    (:03) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP
    p(convert) 67%

    (12:51) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 21 for 13 yards (30-R.Ford).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (6:02) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LA 27, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson ran ob at LA 44 for 17 yards (51-G.Hodges).

  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 41 for 13 yards (47-E.Turner).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 94%

    (13:26) 16-J.Goff up the middle to ARI 15 for no gain (90-R.Nkemdiche; 43-H.Reddick). Los Angeles Rams challenged the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 13:10.)

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (11:49) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to LA 33, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson. PENALTY on LA-59-M.Kiser, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 33.

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 27
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 82%

    (8:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right.

  • Q4 ARI 4th & 3 at the 61 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass short right to 29-C.Edmonds to ARI 46 for 7 yards (54-B.Hager).