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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 84

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 2-A.Lee punts 46 yards to LA 38, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson ran ob at ARI 43 for 19 yards (92-D.Gardeck). PENALTY on LA-83-J.Reynolds, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 49.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth -0.04 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.58 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 42, worth -2.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP