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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 27

Los Angeles Rams 27 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(8:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.73 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EP