Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 27

(2:35) 2-A.Lee punts 54 yards to LA 28, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 41 for 13 yards (47-E.Turner).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.93 EP
68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 82, worth -4.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model