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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 1
Los Angeles Rams 11 – Arizona Cardinals 0
What Actually Happened
(:03) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.37 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
62% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
- 38% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 1, worth +0.14 EP
KICK
+2.93 EP
- 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
- 1% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.02 EP
PUNT
-0.00 EP
- Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
