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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 19

What Actually Happened

(12:51) 2-A.Lee punts 52 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to LA 21 for 13 yards (30-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.08 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 60, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.98 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 19, worth -0.98 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.24 EP