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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 11

What Actually Happened

(4:33) 2-A.Lee punts 58 yards to LA 8, Center-46-A.Brewer. 19-J.Natson to ARI 32 for 60 yards (2-A.Lee).

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.47 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 24, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model