4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Los Angeles Rams 27

What Actually Happened

(11:49) 2-A.Lee punts 43 yards to LA 33, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 19-J.Natson. PENALTY on LA-59-M.Kiser, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 33.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.17 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 76, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 34, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.90 EP