Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- WAS offense: -0.160 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
- ARI offense: -0.163 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- ARI defense: -0.197 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
- Alex Smith (WAS): +0.159 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- WAS defense: -0.085 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
WAS
ARI
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 22 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 15:00 TD WAS (15:00) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 25-C.Thompson for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-R.Nkemdiche]. WAS 6 – ARI 0
- Q2 04:12 TD WAS (4:12) 79-T.Nsekhe and 52-R.Anderson reported in as eligible. 26-A.Peterson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – ARI 0
- Q2 00:12 TD WAS (:12) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short right to 86-J.Reed for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 20 – ARI 0
- Q4 12:16 FG WAS (12:16) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 24 – ARI 0
- Q4 05:51 TD ARI (5:51) 31-D.Johnson up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – ARI 6
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 ARI 4th & 1 at the 60Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EPp(convert) 67%
(5:57) 2-A.Lee punts 60 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
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Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 72Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:27) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 15, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 27 for 12 yards (32-D.Coleman).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 50Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 32%
(9:18) 11-A.Smith up the middle to ARI 49 for 1 yard (98-C.Peters).
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Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(3:27) 2-A.Lee punts 56 yards to WAS 17, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn. PENALTY on WAS-20-R.Kelley, Offensive Holding, 9 yards, enforced at WAS 17.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 3 at the 41Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EPp(convert) 47% p(FG) 54%
(12:59) 2-A.Lee punts 33 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 14 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:20) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to ARI 41, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 42 for 1 yard (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). PENALTY on ARI-33-T.Boston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 41.
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Q3 ARI 4th & 11 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(11:18) 2-A.Lee punts 57 yards to WAS 13, Center-46-A.Brewer. 14-T.Quinn to WAS 25 for 12 yards (23-B.Benwikere). WAS-14-T.Quinn was injured during the play. Penalty on WAS-30-T.Apke, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on WAS-31-F.Moreau, Unnecessary Roughness, 5 yards, enforced at WAS 13.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 34%
(4:27) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 13Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 31% p(FG) 95%
(12:16) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 89 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(4:48) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to ARI 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to WAS 26 for 44 yards (30-T.Apke).
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Q4 ARI 4th & 7 at the 7 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EPp(convert) 29% p(FG) 98%
(3:26) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 86-R.Seals-Jones.