4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 3 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Washington Commanders 21

What Actually Happened

(12:59) 2-A.Lee punts 33 yards to WAS 8, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 14-T.Quinn.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.53 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 41, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.20 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.76 EP