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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 7

Arizona Cardinals 6 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(3:26) (Shotgun) 9-S.Bradford pass incomplete short right to 86-R.Seals-Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened
  • 29% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 7, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +2.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.51 EP
PUNT -0.43 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.75 EP