Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 14 at the 96

Washington Commanders 21 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 5-T.Way punts 55 yards to ARI 41, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to ARI 42 for 1 yard (40-J.Harvey-Clemons). PENALTY on ARI-33-T.Boston, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 41.

The Three Options

GO -4.13 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.61 EP
72% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 96, worth -5.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model