4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 49

Washington Commanders 21 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(4:27) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to ARI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 13-C.Kirk.

The Three Options

GO -1.37 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.62 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
KICK -1.26 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model