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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 13

Washington Commanders 21 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:16) 3-D.Hopkins 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.43 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 13, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 23, worth -1.01 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model