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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 89

Washington Commanders 24 – Arizona Cardinals 6

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 5-T.Way punts 59 yards to ARI 30, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 13-C.Kirk to WAS 26 for 44 yards (30-T.Apke).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.64 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 89, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 46, worth -1.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model