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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 50

Washington Commanders 7 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(9:18) 11-A.Smith up the middle to ARI 49 for 1 yard (98-C.Peters).

The Three Options

GO +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.47 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 50, worth -2.93 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.43 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.93 EP
PUNT -0.96 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model