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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Doug Pederson
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Sunday 2018-02-04 · 18:31 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 4.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

PHI
40.9%
NE
59.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Neutral site — no home-field edge
  • QB edge to NE: Tom Brady (NE) +0.219 vs Nick Foles (PHI) -0.111 EPA/dropback
  • NE offense: +0.138 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • PHI defense: -0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.066 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

PHI 23
–
NE 28
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 21

PHI

No players on the report.

NE

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 21 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 41
–
NE 33

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:58 FG PHI (7:58) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 04:20 FG NE (4:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. PHI 3 – NE 3
  • Q1 02:41 TD PHI (2:41) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 17-A.Jeffery for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9 – NE 3
  • Q2 08:55 TD PHI (8:55) 73-I.Seumalo reported in as eligible. 29-L.Blount left end for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 15 – NE 3
  • Q2 07:29 FG NE (7:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. PHI 15 – NE 6
  • Q2 02:12 TD NE (2:12) 28-J.White left guard for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 15 – NE 12
  • Q2 00:38 TD PHI (:38) (Shotgun) 88-T.Burton pass short right to 9-N.Foles for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9-N.Foles first career Reception. PHI 21 – NE 12
  • Q3 12:19 TD NE (12:19) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 22 – NE 18
  • Q3 07:25 TD PHI (7:25) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass deep left to 30-C.Clement for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. PHI 28 – NE 19
  • Q3 03:29 TD NE (3:29) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 15-C.Hogan for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 29 – NE 25
  • Q4 14:14 FG PHI (14:14) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. Penalty on NE-92-J.Harrison, Defensive Offside, declined. PHI 32 – NE 26
  • Q4 09:26 TD NE (9:26) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 87-R.Gronkowski for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 32 – NE 32
  • Q4 02:25 TD PHI (2:25) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the pass completion ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field was confirmed. PHI 38 – NE 33
  • Q4 01:10 FG PHI (1:10) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. PHI 41 – NE 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%

    (7:58) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 4 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.46 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 97%

    (4:20) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 97%

    (14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. Mishandled snap.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:16) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NE 37, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 5 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 68%

    (11:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski (31-J.Mills) [55-B.Graham].

  • Q2 NE 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 83%

    (7:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 PHI 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 99%

    (:38) (Shotgun) 88-T.Burton pass short right to 9-N.Foles for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9-N.Foles first career Reception.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 11 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 87%

    (14:14) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. Penalty on NE-92-J.Harrison, Defensive Offside, declined.

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (5:39) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 47 for 2 yards (30-D.Harmon) [98-T.Flowers].

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 6 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 83%

    (1:10) 4-J.Elliott 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 10 at the 91 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to NE 22 for 13 yards (53-N.Bradham) [56-C.Long].