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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 35

New England Patriots 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(11:58) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass incomplete deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski (31-J.Mills) [55-B.Graham].

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +4.03 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.47 EP
KICK +0.71 EP
  • 68% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 45, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model