Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 91

New England Patriots 33 – Philadelphia Eagles 41

(:42) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short middle to 80-D.Amendola to NE 22 for 13 yards (53-N.Bradham) [56-C.Long].

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.21 EP
62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 91, worth -2.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.99 EP