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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 1

Philadelphia Eagles 15 – New England Patriots 12

What Actually Happened

(:38) (Shotgun) 88-T.Burton pass short right to 9-N.Foles for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 9-N.Foles first career Reception.

The Three Options

GO +4.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.32 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 1, worth +0.34 EP
KICK +2.35 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.39 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model