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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 27

New England Patriots 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 15

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.85 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 37, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model