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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 32 – New England Patriots 33

What Actually Happened

(5:39) (Shotgun) 9-N.Foles pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to PHI 47 for 2 yards (30-D.Harmon) [98-T.Flowers].

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.34 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 55, worth -2.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model