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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 24

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – New England Patriots 26

What Actually Happened

(14:14) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-D.Jones. Penalty on NE-92-J.Harrison, Defensive Offside, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.01 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 24, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 34, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT -0.13 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model