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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 8

New England Patriots 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 3-S.Gostkowski 26 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. Mishandled snap.

The Three Options

GO +3.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.62 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 8, worth +0.33 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.31 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.47 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP