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CAR Away

Carolina Panthers

HC Ron Rivera
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NO Home

New Orleans Saints

HC Sean Payton
Sunday 2018-01-07 · 16:40 Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans US 🏟 Dome Spread 6.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

CAR
38.3%
NO
61.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to NO: Drew Brees (NO) +0.166 vs Cam Newton (CAR) -0.026 EPA/dropback
  • CAR offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

CAR 23
–
NO 26
Projected margin: NO by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

CAR

Derek Anderson QB Questionable Illness
Trai Turner G Questionable Concussion
Devin Funchess WR Questionable Shoulder
Matt Kalil T Questionable Illness

NO

Terron Armstead T Questionable Thigh
Trey Hendrickson DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CAR 26
–
NO 31

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:58 TD NO (1:58) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right to 19-T.Ginn for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 41, YAC 39 CAR 0 – NO 6
  • Q2 14:15 FG CAR (14:15) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 3 – NO 7
  • Q2 09:09 TD NO (9:09) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 9-D.Brees pass short left to 89-J.Hill for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 9, YAC 0 CAR 3 – NO 13
  • Q2 02:51 FG CAR (2:51) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 6 – NO 14
  • Q2 00:46 TD NO (:46) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 42-Z.Line right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 6 – NO 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG CAR (:03) 9-G.Gano 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 9 – NO 21
  • Q3 11:01 FG CAR (11:01) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy. CAR 12 – NO 21
  • Q3 06:09 FG NO (6:09) 3-W.Lutz 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-6-T.Morstead. CAR 12 – NO 24
  • Q4 12:52 TD CAR (12:52) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 88-G.Olsen for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CAR 18 – NO 24
  • Q4 05:12 TD NO (5:12) 61-J.LeRibeus reported in as eligible. 41-A.Kamara right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO-65-S.Kelemete was injured during the play. His return is Probable. CAR 19 – NO 30
  • Q4 04:20 TD CAR (4:20) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton pass short right to 22-C.McCaffrey for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 6, YAC 50 CAR 25 – NO 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (13:13) 6-T.Morstead punts 44 yards to CAR 27, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 22-C.McCaffrey.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 10 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to CAR 31, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 30 for -1 yards (34-J.Hardee).

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 2 at the 7
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 97%

    (2:07) 9-G.Gano 25 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 97%

    (14:15) 9-G.Gano 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 49
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 33%

    (6:31) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton up the middle to NO 48 for 1 yard (55-J.Freeny; 51-M.Te'o).

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (2:51) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 96%

    (11:01) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (3:56) 5-M.Palardy punts 51 yards to NO 27, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 33 for 6 yards (43-F.Whittaker). PENALTY on NO-24-S.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at NO 33.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (1:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 57 yards to CAR 20, Center-49-Z.Wood. 12-K.Clay to CAR 32 for 12 yards (49-Z.Wood).

  • Q4 NO 4th & 12 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

    (9:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CAR 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 17 at the 90
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NO 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 48 for 11 yards (57-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 48.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 2 at the 47 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 38%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams [98-S.Lotulelei] at CAR 30. 29-M.Adams to CAR 31 for 1 yard (41-A.Kamara). FUMBLES (41-A.Kamara), ball out of bounds at CAR 31.