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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 57

Carolina Panthers 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 41 yards to NO 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 11-T.Lewis.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.10 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 57, worth -3.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.11 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 17, worth -1.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model