Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 90

Carolina Panthers 19 – New Orleans Saints 24

What Actually Happened

(8:23) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to NO 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 11-T.Lewis to NO 48 for 11 yards (57-A.Gachkar). PENALTY on NO-37-A.Maulet, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 48.

The Three Options

GO -3.30 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.33 EP
71% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 90, worth -5.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model