4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 12 at the 51

New Orleans Saints 24 – Carolina Panthers 19

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 6-T.Morstead punts 34 yards to CAR 17, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 12-K.Clay.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.21 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model