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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 47

New Orleans Saints 31 – Carolina Panthers 26

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Shotgun) 9-D.Brees pass deep right intended for 41-A.Kamara INTERCEPTED by 29-M.Adams [98-S.Lotulelei] at CAR 30. 29-M.Adams to CAR 31 for 1 yard (41-A.Kamara). FUMBLES (41-A.Kamara), ball out of bounds at CAR 31.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +0.78 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.16 EP
KICK -0.76 EP
  • 38% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model