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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(6:31) 72-T.Moton reported in as eligible. 1-C.Newton up the middle to NO 48 for 1 yard (55-J.Freeny; 51-M.Te'o).

The Three Options

GO +0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 14, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model