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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 3 – New Orleans Saints 14

What Actually Happened

(2:51) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.57 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 31, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model