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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 11

Carolina Panthers 9 – New Orleans Saints 21

What Actually Happened

(11:01) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 22, worth -0.71 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model