4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
JAX Home

Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Doug Marrone
Sunday 2018-01-07 · 13:05 EverBank Field, Jacksonville US 💨 Windy Spread 8.5 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

BUF
24.6%
JAX
75.4%
💨 Windy

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.148 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • JAX defense: -0.175 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • Wind 18 mph
  • BUF defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 15
–
JAX 24
Projected margin: JAX by 9 Projected total: 39

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 18

BUF

Shareece Wright CB Out Concussion
Matt Milano LB Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Mills T Questionable Ankle
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Ankle
Deonte Thompson WR Questionable Shoulder
Joe Webb QB Questionable Ankle

JAX

T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Illness
Marqise Lee WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 18 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 3
–
JAX 10

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 26 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 01:53 FG BUF (1:53) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt. BUF 3 – JAX 0
  • Q2 00:07 FG JAX (:07) 4-J.Lambo 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-C.Holba, Holder-3-B.Nortman. BUF 3 – JAX 3
  • Q3 00:49 TD JAX (:49) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 83-B.Koyack for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 3 – JAX 9

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 15 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 53 yards to JAX 9, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 85-J.Mickens MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at JAX 9.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (10:23) 3-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate, dead ball declared at BUF 34 for no gain.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 66%

    (8:20) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 44 yards to JAX 13, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49%

    (5:47) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 62 yards to BUF 4, Center-49-C.Holba, downed by JAX-25-P.Thompson.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 2 at the 51
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 17%

    (:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 40 yards to JAX 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 85-J.Mickens.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:19) 3-B.Nortman punts 52 yards to BUF 21, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 39 for 18 yards (30-C.Grant). PENALTY on BUF-41-B.Borders, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 24.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 13 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 47%

    (10:02) 3-B.Nortman punts 22 yards to BUF 16, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 94%

    (1:53) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (1:12) 3-B.Nortman punts 36 yards to BUF 22, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 16 for -6 yards (55-L.McCray; 53-B.Brown). PENALTY on BUF-41-B.Borders, Face Mask (15 Yards), 12 yards, enforced at BUF 22.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (:47) 6-C.Schmidt punts 34 yards to JAX 47, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 4 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 20%

    (13:17) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to BUF 8, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 11 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 17%

    (9:46) 6-C.Schmidt punts 39 yards to JAX 12, impetus ends at JAX 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 12-D.Westbrook to JAX 14 for 2 yards (40-T.Vallejo).

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (:49) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 83-B.Koyack for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 22%

    (11:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 37 yards to JAX 11, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 12-D.Westbrook.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 14 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:37) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 57 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 17 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (5:59) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 7 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (3:36) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to BUF 23, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 34 for 11 yards (52-D.Payne).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 66 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (3:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to JAX 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-S.Thomas.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 3 at the 68 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to BUF 30, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 37 for 7 yards (25-P.Thompson; 53-B.Brown).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 3 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (1:17) (Shotgun) 2-N.Peterman scrambles left end to BUF 48 for 4 yards (50-T.Smith). FUMBLES (50-T.Smith), ball out of bounds at BUF 48.