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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 49

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(13:17) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to BUF 8, Center-49-C.Holba, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.00 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.15 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.79 EP
KICK -1.84 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.82 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP