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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 13 at the 13

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 4-S.Hauschka 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 13, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 23, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.61 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth -0.61 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model