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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 7 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(3:36) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 40 yards to BUF 23, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate to BUF 34 for 11 yards (52-D.Payne).

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.49 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 63, worth -2.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model