Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 14 at the 83

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – Buffalo Bills 3

(8:37) (Punt formation) 3-B.Nortman punts 57 yards to BUF 26, Center-49-C.Holba, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.84 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.44 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -4.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model