Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 66

Buffalo Bills 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 10

(3:09) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 41 yards to JAX 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-29-S.Thomas.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.62 EP
70% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 66, worth -2.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model