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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 1 at the 1

Jacksonville Jaguars 3 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(:49) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 83-B.Koyack for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.63 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model