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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 85

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 3-B.Nortman punts 51 yards to BUF 34, Center-49-C.Holba. 15-B.Tate, dead ball declared at BUF 34 for no gain.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.99 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -1.85 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model