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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
LA Home

Los Angeles Rams

HC Sean McVay
Sunday 2017-12-31 · 16:25 Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

SF
50.1%
LA
49.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to SF: Sean Mannion (LA) -0.285 vs Jimmy Garoppolo (SF) +0.360 EPA/dropback (LA starting Sean Mannion in place of Jared Goff)
  • LA defense: -0.106 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LA offense: +0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • SF offense: -0.028 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
LA 21
Projected margin: SF by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

SF

No players on the report.

LA

Mark Barron LB Doubtful Achilles
Cooper Kupp WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 34
–
LA 13

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:13 FG SF (12:13) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 3 – LA 0
  • Q1 05:23 TD SF (5:23) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 11-M.Goodwin for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 9 – LA 0
  • Q1 01:15 FG LA (1:15) 5-S.Ficken 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 10 – LA 3
  • Q2 05:05 FG SF (5:05) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion. SF 13 – LA 3
  • Q2 01:23 TD SF (1:23) 28-C.Hyde up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 19 – LA 3
  • Q2 00:01 FG LA (:01) 5-S.Ficken 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker. SF 20 – LA 6
  • Q3 06:19 TD SF (6:19) (No Huddle) 28-C.Hyde left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 26 – LA 6
  • Q4 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 19-A.Robinson for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 33 – LA 6
  • Q4 06:47 TD LA (6:47) 25-L.Dunbar left tackle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 34 – LA 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 SF 4th & 10 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 94%

    (12:13) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (9:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 53 yards to SF 18, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (4:23) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SF 27, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q1 LA 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (1:15) 5-S.Ficken 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (14:55) 5-B.Pinion punts 51 yards to LA 19, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-P.Cooper to LA 25 for 6 yards (45-T.Powell).

  • Q2 LA 4th & 9 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 24%

    (10:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

  • Q2 SF 4th & 3 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 78%

    (5:05) 9-R.Gould 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 LA 4th & 18 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (2:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SF 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor to SF 43 for 13 yards (86-D.Carrier).

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (13:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 58 yards to SF 13, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor pushed ob at SF 29 for 16 yards (53-C.Thompson; 27-I.Johnson).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 5 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to LA 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-P.Cooper ran ob at LA 36 for 16 yards (44-K.Juszczyk). PENALTY on LA-88-M.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

  • Q3 LA 4th & 6 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (8:57) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to SF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor to SF 40 for 3 yards (47-K.Peterson).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 1 at the 37
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 61%

    (9:43) 14-S.Mannion up the middle to SF 35 for 2 yards (56-R.Foster, 96-S.Day).

  • Q4 LA 4th & 9 at the 83 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.