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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 83

Los Angeles Rams 13 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 6-J.Hekker punts 46 yards to SF 37, Center-44-J.McQuaide, fair catch by 81-T.Taylor.

The Three Options

GO -2.12 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.91 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 83, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -1.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 41, worth -1.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model