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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 15

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(12:13) 9-R.Gould 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-5-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.64 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 15, worth -0.94 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model