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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 5

Los Angeles Rams 0 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(1:15) 5-S.Ficken 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.23 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.45 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP