Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 9 at the 52

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:01) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SF 4, Center-44-J.McQuaide, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
65% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.73 EP

KICK -1.55 EP

24% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
76% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model