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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 56

San Francisco 49ers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 6

What Actually Happened

(11:04) 5-B.Pinion punts 36 yards to LA 20, Center-86-K.Nelson. 10-P.Cooper ran ob at LA 36 for 16 yards (44-K.Juszczyk). PENALTY on LA-88-M.Thomas, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LA 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.73 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 56, worth -3.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model