Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 18 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 3 – San Francisco 49ers 13

(2:24) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to SF 30, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 81-T.Taylor to SF 43 for 13 yards (86-D.Carrier).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.52 EP
73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.01 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model